The October 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse reports that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has maintained momentum amid heightened global policy uncertainty.
Following a trough in 2023, regional activity is poised to expand at 3.8 percent in 2025, up from 3.5 percent in 2024, and accelerate further to an annual average rate of 4.4 percent in 2026–27.
Consumer price inflation has continued to recede across most Sub-Saharan African countries, albeit at varying speeds.
After peaking at 9.3 percent in 2022, the region’s median inflation rate declined to 4.5 percent in 2024 and is projected to stabilize between 3.9 and 4.0 percent annually over 2025–26.
Jobs are the main channel through which people reap the gains of economic growth. However, most new labor market entrants find work in low-productivity, informal sectors that offer limited prospects for rapid income growth, reduced poverty, and improved social mobility.
Wage-paying jobs make up only 24 percent of employment, and less if Southern Africa is excluded.
Sub-Saharan Africa requires a new growth model anchored in medium-sized and large enterprises, which are critical drivers of productivity and job creation.
The 2025 growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.3 percentage point compared to the April 2025 volume of Africa’s Pulse. This improvement is broad-based, with 30 of 47 countries seeing upward revisions to their growth forecasts. Notably, major economies such as Ethiopia (0.7 percentage point), Nigeria (0.6 percentage point), and Côte d’Ivoire (0.5 percentage point) have experienced significant upgrades.
The projected acceleration in Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2025 is underpinned by improved terms of trade across much of the region, contributing to currency stabilization and, in some cases, appreciation. Declining inflation in many countries has allowed for a gradual easing of monetary policy, boosting household purchasing power and creating space for further rate cuts.
These favorable conditions are fueling a recovery in private consumption and investment. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts may continue to weigh on overall economic activity, moderating the pace of recovery in some economies.
Due to their relatively low trade exposure to the United States, Sub-Saharan African countries are well-positioned to weather the impact of higher US tariffs. Nevertheless, uncertainty around the implementation and duration of current trade measures remains elevated.
This lingering uncertainty, coupled with subdued global investor appetite and a tightening supply of external finance, could constrain growth prospects. Elevated risk of debt distress across many countries in the region leaves them vulnerable to external shocks, limiting their ability to respond effectively to global economic disruptions.
In per capita terms, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been insufficient to lead to significantly reduced extreme poverty or improved income distribution. Real income per capita in the region is projected to grow at 1.3 percent in 2025, up from 1.0 percent in 2024, and is expected to reach 1.9 percent by 2026–27.
While this marks a gradual recovery from a decade of successive shocks, the rebound has yet to gain strong momentum. After reaching a peak of 50 percent in 2024, poverty—measured at $3 per capita per day in 2021 international purchasing power parity—has been forecasted to drop to 48.4 percent in 2027.
The total number of poor people in the region is expected to increase from 576 million in 2022 to 671 million in 2027.
Source: World Bank Group/ Africa’s Pulse Reports
