Ghana may not need another IMF bailout if current fiscal discipline and economic stability are sustained, according to economist Dr. Alexander Baffour Amo of Pentecost University.
Speaking on the country’s economic outlook, Dr. Amo said President John Dramani Mahama’s statement that Ghana would not return to the IMF reflects the administration’s reforms to prevent a repeat of past fiscal crises.
He attributed Ghana’s repeated IMF reliance to “reckless public spending, weak financial management, and unsustainable borrowing” under previous governments.
The current administration, he said, is reversing that trend through tighter fiscal controls and structural reforms.
One key step is the passage of the Value for Money Act Bill, which Dr. Amo said is designed to curb wasteful spending, prevent inflated contracts, and strengthen accountability in public resource management.
Signs of stability emerging:
Dr. Amo cited falling inflation and a more stable cedi as signs that the economy is becoming more predictable for businesses and consumers. Single-digit inflation, he explained, boosts confidence by reducing price uncertainty for households and traders.
He also pointed to a sharp drop in Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio, from 61.8% in 2024 to about 45.3% in 2025, which he credited to disciplined fiscal management and debt restructuring.
Borrowing costs have fallen, creating a better environment for businesses and investors.
Contractors working on road projects are now being paid consistently, unlike in past years when payment delays were common, he added.
“The economy we inherited was unstable, inflation was rising uncontrollably, and the exchange rate situation was worrying. But today, there is greater stability in the system, interest rates have reduced, and the cedi has become relatively stable against the dollar,” Dr. Amo said.
The improving exchange rate is easing pressure on importers and businesses that rely on foreign exchange, while lower interest rates could encourage expansion and job creation.
Dr. Amo’s comments come as a new study highlights ongoing financial strain for many Ghanaian workers. The National Cost of Living Outlook Report Q1 2026, by Dr. Smart Sarpong of Kumasi Technical University, found that only 32.2% of salaried workers can save* while 67.8% say expenses exceed income.
The survey of 4,155 households across 8 regions found that 95% of workers earn below GH₵5,000 monthly, and 36% earn less than GH₵1,000.
The gap is wider in the private sector, where 58% earn below GH₵2,000 compared to 19.7% in the public sector.
Perception of the cost of living has also worsened. Only 14.4% of Ghanaians now say the cost of living is low, down from 68.8% in 2025.
Electricity tariffs, transport, airtime, and internet were cited as major cost drivers.
Despite these challenges, Dr. Amo maintains that Ghana’s economic fundamentals are improving. He argued that sustained fiscal discipline, reduced borrowing, and targeted policy implementation could free the country from future dependence on the IMF.
He urged Ghanaians to back the government’s recovery agenda to consolidate recent gains.
